Climate change will destroy the agriculture 
Climate change, particularly global warming will have enormous impact on the Macedonian agriculture. The forecast is that the first ones to suffer the consequences will be the tomatoes and grapes because they require large amounts of water. According to the experts, the livestock will also be under threat, but the highest reduction of the yields is expected for the winter wheat.
They suggest finding new varieties (species) resistant to high temperatures and using (application of) modern technology in production and irrigation in order to mitigate the consequences of newly emerging natural conditions. 
- Climate change and its impact on agriculture should be taken seriously, strategies for adaptation and mitigation of the consequences must be developed. It is crucial that in the process the farmers are involved because they are the ones managing the land - says Ingrid Ridberg, representative of the Federation of Swedish farmers in Brussels. 
According to her, the climate change will affect the ability of the agriculture to provide food, energy and services in regards to the ecosystem, and taking into consideration that it is the foundation of a successful rural economy, the effects would be enormous. 
- Climate change is already visible, the temperatures are higher, and rainfall amount decreases. In April this year, EU published a white paper on adaptation to climate change. It emphasizes the need to introduce new breeds and sorts, improved techniques of water management and improved agricultural practices - said Ridberg.EU has two objectives - to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and to develop strategies for adaptation. 
Johan Kieft, an expert engaged by the project MAASP for support of the advisory services in agriculture, estimated that climate change would reduce the potential of the Macedonian agriculture in particular due to changes in hydrological systems. 
- There will be less rainfall, you will face high temperatures and heat waves. The extremely dry climate during the summer will affect the production, but whether it will be reduced or not depends on the type of crop – emphasized Kieft. 
The farmers must adapt to the new conditions with growing crops that require less irrigation, and the private sector with the support of the government should conduct researches in regards to discovery of new species adapted to the climate change. During the last years, the changes in the weather conditions reflected very negatively on crop outdoors. According to Gjoko Danailov, president of the Federation of Farmers which organizes the forum, every year droughts are bigger and bigger, as well as the damage caused by the hail. There will be less and less water, therefore the irrigation systems to be used must be with maximum savings as "drop by drop." 
- We need to act preventively in order to prevent the undesirable consequences. Certain issues must be taken into consideration immediately, we must reorient to crops that are more resistant – stated Danailov. In Macedonia, specific documents and guidelines for prevention of the negative effects of climate change on agriculture are still not prepared, although expert teams are make analysis. 
The initial observations, as it was highlighted at the forum, are that the temperature from 2025 to 2100 will grow by an average of one to 3.8 degrees. The average amount of rainfall will decrease by 3 to 13 per cent, and the total damage of the economy caused by the reduced yields of winter wheat, alfalfa and grapes is expected to reach 30 million euros in 2025, i.e. 40 million in 2100. 
Most vulnerable will be the southeast and central part of Macedonia, while in the Shtip region where the most important crop is the winter wheat, yields can be reduced by 17 percent in 2050. The most dramatic are the prognosis regarding the fall of the yield of tomatoes in Gevgelija region, 81 per cent by 2050. Yields received from the apples in the Resen region and the grapevine in Kavadarci region will be reduced by half, and is also expected significantly greater occurrence of fires. 

Dnevnik, 22 July 2009


INSTEAD OF TOMATOES WE WILL PLANT BANANAS AND OLIVES 
Climate change and food production in Macedonia in the relatively near future 

The apocalyptic prognosys that the climate on Planet Earth will be changing faster than we expect are already becoming true. Global warming leads to spread of the desert. The experts are warning that large part of the southern regions of Macedonia will become desert already after 2100. Most vulnerable regions are part of the Tikvesh region with the rivers Bregalnica and Crna pouring into Vardar, Gradsko, Krivolak, as well as the field of 530 thousand hectares on the southern side of the river Bregalnica in the triangle between Bogoslovec, Stip and Gradsko. 
Such sudden changes are already threatening agricultural production and the farmers in the coming years will have to start changing the crops in these regions. So, it can happen that in the regions where peppers, tomatoes and grapes were traditionally grown, that new crops emerge in the fields. 
Olives already began winning over southern part of Macedonia around Valandovo and Gevgelija. The farmers who until recently were growing the Japanese apples as decoration plant, now are growing this fruit on plantations. It is not excluded that by the end of this century we would have to forget the tomatoes as the main vegetable for salad, and instead of peppers in these regions we would have to grow oranges and tangerines. 
Although today this seems like science fiction, the experts from the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food in Skopje, agronomists and academics already established teams who are involved in the global trend of forecasting of climate change and are preparing the farmers for the day when they will be forced to reorient themselves to planting new crops. 
Teodora Obradovic-Grncharovska, State Counsellor at the Ministry of Environment and Spacial Planning, is national coordinator for climate change. She stated that in our country the climate changes are intensively monitored and is being registered every change in the temperature and decrease of rainfall. All these data are part of the Second national report on climate change. This establishes precise and serious infrastructure for all future research in this field. 
"Our country is threatened by climate change and therefore we are working intensively on reducing the consequences. In this regard we are leaders in the region. Based on the database which has been established and it contains information about the changes of the climate, we will recommend real measures for reducing the consequences and adaptation to the climate change, " stated Teodora Obradovic-Grncharovska. 
The preparation of the Second National Report on Climate Change is a commitment that our country has towards the Framework Convention on Climate Change of the United Nations. The Development Program of the United Nations, where the Convention takes part, foresees that the region of Southeast Europe, where we also belong, will be one of the most affected by the climate change in the next ninety years. 
The quantity of rainfall from year to year will be significantly reduced, meaning, until 2025 will be 3 percent lower, while in 2100 this reduction will reach 13 percent. Temperatures are in constant augmentation, ranging from 1.5 degrees by 2025 to approximately 4 degrees until 2100. 
These changes will have negative impact on the yields of crops, especially in the most vulnerable areas. Crops that are grown in these regions, as grapevine, tomatoes, autumn wheat, apple, especially in the Prespa region, alfalfa will have expected reduction of the yields.
The total direct economic damage from the change of crops and reduced yields due to drought and the spread of the desert, will be around 40 million euros for the wheat only. In the Shtip-ovchepole region, where wheat is the most important culture, yields will drop for 17 percent, while in the Bitola region, where mostly fodder is grown, yields will be reduced in the next two decades, for 62 percent. 
Experts prognosis are that climate change will directly affect the grapevine. Thus, according to the present estimations, in the Tikvesh region yields and quality of grapes will be decreased, and the direct damage that the farmers will suffer will be around 40 million euros. 
But not only the agriculture will suffer the consequences. The stockbreeding will also be under threat. Animals will have to adapt to the new living conditions and higher temperatures, and due to the climate change the quality and location of the pastures will change, which will result with lower quality of milk and meat. 
Dean of the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food, prof. Jordan Chukaliev states that the domestic science is already working intensively on the national strategy for dealing with the climate changes, the severe drought that threatens us and the spread of the desert. 
The whole science is concentrated on creating new selections of agricultural products, resistant to high temperatures and drought. The emphasis in the process of creating new crops will be placed on the creation of new selections of wheat, because according to our plan, it is scheduled that in the next ten years we fully replace imports of wheat. 
According to Chukaliev, the technique and the technology of cultivating agricultural acreages will have to change. The current way of deep plow accelerates evaporation of anyway small quantity of humidity in the soil. In future it will be necessary to accurately foresee how the soil will be cultivated, how and which seed will be used in order to obtain higher yields and better quality food. 
Hydrosystems which have been broken for decades and overgrown in weeds must be activated again. Macedonia has at its disposal Hydrosystems for irrigation of 120 thousand hectares of land. Operational are systems which provide irrigation to 80 thousand hectares, and the water provided by them is used for only 15 thousand hectares. Only in this way we can create so-called sustainable agriculture and to provide enough food for the population. 
With the help of domestic science, farmers will have to make selections of varieties. They should be directed to the classical selection, taking parents from a variety that is resistant to drought, but has a low yield, and the parents of another variety that has high yield and is sensitive to drought. By crossing both positive sides we will try to get the new selections, new seed that will have both positive sides - to be resistant to drought and to provide higher yields. Seeds that many farmers receive from the Netherlands are made to succeed according to their climatic conditions, therefore we (scientists in collaboration with farmers) will have to adapt them to provide the same yields in our conditions. 
The change of the climate conditions in the south of the country forced some of our farmers to reorient towards planting olives, for example, but nobody can guarantee that in future the winters will not be colder than now, which will make them freeze. So maybe it would have been better instead of greek to plant Slovenian olives that are more resistant to low temperatures. 
"In the coming years is expected that the Mediterranean will increasingly resemble to the desert, including here parts of our country. But due to the diversity of cultures that are grown in Macedonia, where there is everything from rye to olives, we have conditions to survive. But, we have to understand that if everything around us is desert, we will certainly not be the only oasis. The world is fighting against climate change and we are signatories of this document, but it is not enough just to sign the document but it is necessary to work on its operationalization. This includes activities such as educating the population on rational water management, protection of forests from fires, using new technologies in hydromeliorative systems which we completely forgot that exist, "said Goce Vasilevski, professor at the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food. 
The change of agricultural crops as a result of global warming is already visible. Until few years ago, for example, the Japanese apples were grown in yards on the south of the country only as ornamental plant. Today we have whole plantations of this plant, which in Macedonia with the gradual change of climate find excellent soil for development. 
Worrying process will occur with the stockbreeding. First, because of the reduced humidity of the soil, the pastures will retreat to higher altitude, and we will lose the meadows. Our soil also experiences the appearance of diseases such as bluetongue, which until recently was typical for the tropical regions only. It is the result of the spread of tropical parasites that exist in the soil. Due to heat stress in livestock, some measures will have to be implemented for adaptation, i.e. airconditioning in the barns, which will be a big problem for our Macedonian conditions. 
The climate changes lead to more frequent increase of the prices of the food, and due to this is assumed that the genetically modified food will be offered as a way out of crisis. Even in Europe, which currently is the biggest opponent to the use of GMO-products, is betoken approval of the use of such products. 
In our state, the opinions about the use of genetically modified food are divided. According to Professor Chukaliev there is nothing scary and dangerous if on our fields products are grown which are resistant to diseases and provide higher yields. He even suggests as fast as possible to start growing genetically modified wheat in order to increase yields of grain in Macedonia. 
Unlike him, prof. Vasilevski is skeptical about the use of GMOs in the production of grain, because he considers that the use of GMOs is reduced to combat between the various producers of GMO seeds, and other seedlings. "It is tragic is when business will take primacy over science," said Goce Vasilevski. He accused America of favorising the GMO-food because such production is cheaper, and of its remnants biofuel is made. 
Macedonia has opposed the import and use of GMO-food for a long time, but in recent years is allowed that the food products contain a maximum of 0.9 percent genetically modified ingredients. On the declaration of such products must be stressed that the product contains genetically modified ingredients. 
"Resistance against GMO is a result of ignorance," says Professor Chukaliev. He explains that genetically modified products are not harmful to human health and do not cause any diseases, as it is often written. The reason is lack of information. Genetically modified food is more often present in the European countries as well, where the standards for healthy food are very strict. If genetic engineering is put under control, then the scientists will know how to deal with the possible side effects, if any. GMO, no doubt, means progress in food production, just as it is done by the classical genetics. 
 

weekly GLOBAL

Next year, strategy for protection from heat 

Macedonia, although faced with heat waves for years, still has no national strategy on how to deal with this kind of weather. There is also no action plan where the actions and the measures to be undertaken for the appropriate weather conditions are stated. To reduce the negative effects, the state will create a strategy for protection from heat waves, which should be ready next year. An alert system will also be introduced, which will be signalizing according to the weather parameters and indicating the measures to be undertaken. 
For the time being, the protection of the population from heat waves is being reduced to the recommendations of the State Institute for Health Protection which informs us in which period of the day not to go out, how to dress and what to eat. 
World statistics informs that during heat waves, as foreseen for our country for today and tomorrow, the number of death cases is increasing. Thus, for example, in 2003 due to the consequences of the heat waves 70,000 people died. 
It is quite clear that the heat waves are suppressing the other environmental problems as air pollution, toxins, above all, because of the phenomenon of greenhouse gases and climate change, it was pointed out at yesterday's workshop organized by the World Health Organization. 
"By every degree of increasement of the global temperature, the mortality in people is increased by one to four percent. Health issues can occur in all age groups. Variations of risk will depend on individual caracteristics, level of exposure to warm weather and heat waves and the ability to adapt to such weather, "said Margarita Spasenovska from the Office of the World Health Organization in Skopje. 
Of course, during extreme temperatures is increased the risk of occurrence of contagious diseases, which for decades are considered to be rooted out, such as cholera, malaria. "Climate change will increase the risk of epidemics," added Spasenovska. According to her, Lyme disease is changing its location of appearance, following the movement of the itch-mites. "Laishmaniozata – a skin disease transmitted by the sand fly is increasingly moving to the north. In 2007 the chikunguja disease appeared in Italy, and is transmitted by a new type of mosquito. Allergic diseases caused by pollen, such as rhinitis, started occurring earlier in the year, "explains Spasenovska. 
(Utrinski vesnik)


This weekend tropical heat in Macedonia 

Liquids, light clothing and creams with protective factor 
At yesterday's debate, organized by the NGO - Journalists for women and children rights and environmental protection of Macedonia, the Ministry of Health, World Health Organization and the Red Cross, gave recommendations to the citizens for reducing the risks for the health caused by the heat waves. 
From today until Saturday Macedonia will be hit by extremely hot wave. The temperature will reach more than 40 degrees Celsius and a high UV index of solar radiation 9. At yesterday's debate, organized by the NGO - Journalists for women and children rights and environmental protection of Macedonia, the Ministry of Health, World Health Organization and the Red Cross, gave recommendations to the citizens for reducing the risks for the health caused by the heat waves. 
- We recommend to the citizens not to go out during the hottest part of day, to drink more liquids, to wear light clothing, to use creams with high protective factor. We also recommend that they consume smaller quantities of greasy food, but to consume more fruits and vegetables, to avoid alcohol and ventilate the vehicles before entering - said MARGARITA Spasenovska from WHO. 
Spasenovska added that chronically ill people should regularly take their prescribed therapy in consultation with their doctor. 
- Otherwise, due to the high temperatures and the increased possibility of food poisoning and infectious intestinal diseases, remain on power the recommendations for mandatory washing of fresh vegetables and fruits before their use, for thermal preparation of the food and its consumption in a very short period after preparation - says Spasenovska.
At the same time, products that are not thermally processed should be avoided, such as mayonnaise prepared with domestic eggs, careful consumption of ice cream and various creams, washing hands regularly and maintaining personal hygiene. 
The competent Ministry sent official note to all health institutions in the country in regards to the personnel, medications and equipment required in oredr to cope with a possible increase of the number of patients due to high temperatures. 
The National Hidrometeorological Administration informes that the temperature today will reach 39, while the warmest weather will be on Saturday with the maximum temperature of 41 degree. As from Sunday, a (osvezuvawe) refreshment is expected and the temperatures will go down few degrees.
Starting from 2011, methodic afforestation 
Experts preparing a long-term strategy for afforestation until 2020 
"Afforestation of Macedonia should be based on long-term strategy developed by a team of experts. The initiative 'Tree Day' is an excellent idea for raising awareness among citizens on the need for afforestation of our country. But, inorder to get real results, it is required hard work and preparation, not just one-day actions, stated the professor of the Faculty of Forestry, Jane Acevski. 
The methodic afforestation will begin in 2011, when it is planed to make a revision of all localities which were part of the “Tree day” action. The places where the number of growing plants is very small will be afforested again. Also, the species of seedlings will be replaced with those which will better suit the conditions of the area, as well as the weather conditions. 
On the preparation of the long-term strategy, in the course of the next 18 months, a team of experts from several faculties and ministries will be working, as well as experts from "Macedonian Forests" and State Cadastre. 
According to the conclusions of the Conference on long-term afforestation, held in MASA in June, a plan will be prepared about the state owned land which is at disposal and can be afforested over the next decade, as well as a plan about the type and the quantity of the seedlings to be planted. 
"In order to have larger number of growing trees, we must be careful which species are planted and where. Macedonia has a specific climate and therefore we must insist on the creation of natural forests, meaning, planting mixed species in one place, which will be more resistant to, for example, fires, diseases and pests, "says Acevski. 
"In order to have a successful implementation of a long- term plan for afforestation, the state should introduce a law on afforestation, is the consideration of academic Georgi Filipovski. An establishment of Afforestation Fund is needed, and in order to provide funds continuously, the government should subsidize the activities related to afforestation. 
"We are satisfied with the support of the 'Tree Day', their action to grow from enthusiasm to a more professional level. After completion of the strategy, plans for each region will be prepared and they will be implemented until 2020, consideres Filipovski. Until then, as in the previous three actions "Tree Day", the projected locations will be afforested with the seedlings the public enterprise "Macedonian Forests" currently has in the storage (zaliha). 
Based on the long-term plan, will be possible to avoid situations that have occurred several times, that the afforestation is carried out on grassland or land plannned for other purposes, when the young trees immediately after planting, were destroyed by people or livestock. 
"The financial means of the Afforestation Fund will provide a kind of certainty that the action will not depend on the will of any government and afforestation will be conducted according to the plan," stresses Filipovski. The Strategy will enable planned production of the seedlings required, as well. 

Macedonia got 7.5 million new plants: 

We’ve become regional leaders in planting trees! 
- We've become an example in the region and wider, that other states began to follow. I firmly believe that in future, the Balkans and perhaps even beyond, will accept this action and will begin to follow us in this regard, Gruevski said, adding that while he is in this position, he will support the action. 
Beautiful weather in favour of the “Tree Day”. Many of the citizens did not hesitate to go out in the nature and plant a tree. Since the early morning hours they were present at the points from where the buses went to the places where they will plant a tree. 
"I go regularly, this is my fourth time, we always go early, so that we can get back earlier. Everyone must contribute to keep this planet healthy for future generations. What we do today is in the interest of the future," say the citizens.
The participants in the action walked in lines several kilometers on foot to reach the places provided for afforestation. Trees were equally planted by students and senior citizens. 
"We planted more than one hundred of seedlings, I and my wife. The day is wonderful and I believe that this will be a successful action. What are the people waiting? They go abroad, they wonder how beautiful is in Austria, Germany, but do they think that the trees there grow by themselves? This plant like us, and after 100 years people will come and say how beautiful and green Macedonia is", stated participants in the action. 
For a green future also the students from the schools in Skopje got engaged. 
"We think that this is a good action and it should be organized every year, it helps for a healthy environment. The trees are natural filters of the air and I think more of them should be planted. The environment will be cleaner. Everybody is planting, and I think that they are happy to leave something behind", students say. 
The action "Tree Day - Plant Your Future", is being held for the fourth time. The Board of the Tree Day sent an appeal to all those who want to contribute to a healthy environment to get engaged in today's action for afforestation. 
- We've become an example in the region and wider, which other states began to follow. I firmly believe that in future, the Balkans and perhaps even beyond, will accept this action and will begin to follow us in this regard, Gruevski said, adding that while he is in this position, he will support the action.
With the 7.5 million new seedlings planned to be planted today, the number will reach 20 million seedlings, which makes Macedonia leader in afforestation in the region.